EpidSurge

Population 0-19 Please enter population 0-19

Population 20-64 Please enter population 20-64

Population 65+ Please enter population 65 and above

Staffed Non-ICU Beds Please enter staffed Non-ICU beds

Staffed ICU Beds Please enter staffed ICU beds

Staffed Ventilators Please enter staffed Ventilator

Pandemic Duration Please enter pandemic duration

Attack Rate Please enter pandemic attack rate

Scenario Please select the scenario

Constants

The percentage of high risk population, death rates, and hospitalization rates can be changed to improve the projections. The default values are based on the study of Meltzer et. al. which is based on previous Influenza pandemics.

Assumptions

The assumptions are critical in calculating the availability of hospital resources (Non-ICU beds, ICU beds, and Mechanical Ventilators) during the pandemic. The default values characterize an influenza pandemic based on the study of Zhang et.al. in 2006

High Risk Population Rate

This is the age-specific percentage of the population that has a high risk of getting clinically-ill because of host factors such as age, pre-existing medical conditions, etc. Default values are based on the study of Meltzer et. al. [1].

Age Group	High Risk Population Rate
0 - 19
20 - 64
65+

Death Rate

This is the age-specific and risk-specific percentage of the "clinically-ill" population that will die due to the epidemic. Default values are based on the study of Meltzer et. al. [1], where the death rates per clinically-ill population are calculated using death rates per (1000) general population divided by 1000 given by Equation 1.

Death Rate per Clinically-ill Population = (Death Rate per Thousand General Population)/(Conversion Factor)*10^-3 (1)

If you are not sure how to deal with "per 1000 population," check out this article. The user can define the range of projections by changing the values for "Minimum" and "Maximum" scenarios. The actual projection is based on the values of the "Most Likely" scenario.

Age Group	Low Risk			High Risk
Age Group	Min	Most Likely	Max	Min	Most Likely	Max
0 - 19
20 - 64
65+

Hospitalization Rate

This is the age-specific and risk-specific percentage of the "clinically-ill" population that will be hospitalized due to the epidemic. Default values are based on the study of Meltzer et. al. [1]. The user can define the range of projections by changing the values for "Minimum" and "Maximum" scenarios. The actual projection is based on the values of the "Most Likely" scenario.

Age Group	Low Risk			High Risk
Age Group	Min	Most Likely	Max	Min	Most Likely	Max
0 - 19
20 - 64
65+

[1] M. I. Meltzer, N. J. Cox, and K. Fukuda, “The Economic Impact of Influenza Pandemic in the United States: Priorities for Intervention.” Emerg Infect Dis. 1999, vol. 5:659-7